Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3913…4371 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
other 21% $0
politics 13% −$1
crypto 11% $0
weather 6% +$1
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +6.0% -4.1% 36% 9% -8.0%
≤90d 11 +6.0% -4.1% 36% 9% -8.0%
all 32 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.3% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.15 per $1 lost it wins $4.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage316d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $20 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $116 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $9 +$6 +72%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 420–449 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 11? Aug 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on Aug Aug 10 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 08 $10 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 1h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $46 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $46 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $46 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.35 · official $41.35 (match) · 114 history records