Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x3913…5015 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+13%) realized +$204 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%30W / 30L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$113
14 days−$26
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$52
sports 39% +$154
crypto 15% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -30.9% -37.5% 38% 38% -39.9%
≤30d 60 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 47% +0.5%
≤90d 60 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 47% +0.5%
all 60 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 47% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 47% +0.5%
10% -12.4% 45% -9.1%
15% -20.9% 38% -17.9%
20% -28.6% 28% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses30 / 30
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)60 / 66
History coverage32d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $28 $16 −$12 (-44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $23 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$8 -75%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$24 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$8 +26%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 +$4 +35%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 +$9 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +195%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$12 -56%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$12 +127%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$19 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 +$31 +125%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 −$23 -82%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$3 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$19 +61%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$14 -57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$5 -38%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +131%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +42%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$25 +178%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 +$63 +327%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$31 +249%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$18 -86%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $28 +$10 +36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $23 +$7 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 88¢ $35 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 8h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 23h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 45h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $29 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $21 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $22 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.90 · official $103.98 (match) · 131 history records