Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3912…c081
crypto · 60 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$182 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$159 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$197
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses36 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage558d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 9 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 27¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 72¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 57¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $117 −$116 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7AM ET Feb 05 $406 +$42 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12PM ET Feb 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1PM ET Feb 05 $262 −$262 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12PM ET Feb 05 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Feb 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET Feb 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11AM ET Feb 04 $499 +$62 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10AM ET Feb 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8AM ET Feb 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3PM ET Feb 02 $390 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11AM ET Feb 02 $865 +$44 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6AM ET Feb 02 $362 +$44 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11PM ET Feb 02 $344 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 10PM ET Feb 02 $318 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 9PM ET Feb 02 $218 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 3PM ET Feb 01 $298 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 11AM ET Feb 01 $267 +$32 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4AM ET Feb 01 $235 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2AM ET Feb 01 $218 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1AM ET Feb 01 $200 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 12AM ET Feb 01 $175 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2PM ET Feb 01 $109 −$55 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3PM ET Feb 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1PM ET Feb 01 $99 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 9PM ET Feb 01 $163 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8PM ET Feb 01 $143 +$20 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 6PM ET Feb 01 $128 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3PM ET Feb 01 $121 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9AM ET Jan 30 $116 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 5AM ET Jan 30 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1AM ET Jan 30 $107 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8AM ET Jan 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 8PM ET Jan 29 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3PM ET Jan 28 $85 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2PM ET Jan 28 $70 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12PM ET Jan 28 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 11AM ET Jan 28 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1AM ET Jan 28 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Feb 02 $5 −$3 -56%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 16 $92 +$3 +4%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 16 $58 −$5 -8%
Will Everton win on 2024-12-07? Dec 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-07? Dec 07 $74 +$336 +456%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-05? Dec 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04? Dec 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Southampton win on 2024-12-04? Dec 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04? Dec 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$385
other 6% +$209
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $10 55m
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $10 55m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 2d
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $90 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $31 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $74 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $262 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $50 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $200 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $61 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $108 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.3% -35.1% 50% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 3 -52.2% -56.7% 33% 33% -82.0%
≤90d 3 -52.2% -56.7% 33% 33% -82.0%
all 51 -7.3% -16.1% 71% 27% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 27% -11.4%
10% -24.2% 6% -19.9%
15% -31.5% 6% -27.6%
20% -38.2% 4% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.03 · official $197.03 (match) · 324 history records