Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3910…81d5 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$109 (+9%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$8
other 19% +$96
politics 11% +$5
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 14% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 0% -8.6%
all 33 +8.1% -2.2% 21% 9% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 9% -1.2%
10% -11.6% 6% -10.7%
15% -20.1% 3% -19.3%
20% -27.9% 3% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×55.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.1 per $1 lost it wins $35.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage308d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $90 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $109 +$9 +8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $130 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $104 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $83 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $5 $0 +4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $28 +$95 +335%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $41 +$5 +11%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on August 21 Aug 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $6 $0 -0%
FDA approves UX111? Aug 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $90 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $91 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $26 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $4 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $69 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $7 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $45 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $46 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $24 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $107 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $39 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $47 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $43 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $130 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $40 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $37 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $22 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $104 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records