Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
39 0x3910…1520 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 838d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,902 (-34%) realized −$1,899 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 838d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$1,919
politics 39% −$1
other 4% −$1
sports 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-57.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 5 -52.9% -57.4% 0% 0% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.4% 0% -43.4%
10% -61.4% 0% -48.8%
15% -65.2% 0% -53.8%
20% -68.6% 0% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$388 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

838d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$1,899
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)5 / 18
History coverage838d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,059 $0 -0%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 21 $2,959 −$1,899 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 34m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 35m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 35m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 36m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 58m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $107 27h
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $57 231d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 231d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $58 233d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $58 234d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 54¢ $2,059 755d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,060 755d
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? SELL No 33¢ $1,060 755d
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $2,959 756d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 53¢ $999 837d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.18 · official $337.20 (match) · 31 history records