Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3910…ba74
weather · 376 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$132 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$178 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses109 / 267
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 376 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$191
14 days+$115
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 18? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 17? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Ethereum above $4200 on September 5? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4700 and $4800 on August 25 at 4PM ET? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4000 and $4100 on August 21 at 4PM ET? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State Georgia Southern 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 26? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4800 and $5000 on August 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 3? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-04? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 7? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4600 and $4700 on August 25 at 4PM ET? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 25? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-02-23? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$11 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$63 +1415%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 +$10 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $47 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $51 +$61 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$26 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 +$92 +521%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$17 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 +$67 +385%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$8 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $32 −$23 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $13 −$10 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $34 +$20 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $31 −$24 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$25 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $35 −$31 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$51 +490%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $43 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $5 +$10 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 29? May 29 $31 +$7 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29? May 29 $10 +$25 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 50% −$39
crypto 33% +$318
other 12% −$279
sports 3% −$35
economics 1% −$120
world 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $67 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 29h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +133.7% +111.4% 47% 41% +50.9%
≤30d 116 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 24% -10.2%
≤90d 198 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 23% -11.2%
all 376 -12.9% -21.2% 29% 26% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 26% -11.1%
10% -28.7% 22% -19.6%
15% -35.6% 19% -27.4%
20% -41.9% 18% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 950 history records