Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x390c…b8fe crypto 277 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$114 (+2%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate91%252W / 25L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$33
14 days+$70
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -6.5% -15.4% 87% 14% -11.4%
≤30d 277 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 21% -7.8%
≤90d 277 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 21% -7.8%
all 277 +0.4% -9.2% 91% 21% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 21% -7.8%
10% -17.9% 11% -16.7%
15% -25.8% 6% -24.7%
20% -33.1% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses252 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)277 / 277
History coverage19d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 277 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 553 history records