Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x390a…67e8 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized +$8 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$194
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$96
sports 19% +$83
crypto 2% +$3
world 2% −$27
culture 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.0% +2.2% 73% 55% -10.2%
≤30d 51 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 43% -10.8%
≤90d 51 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 43% -10.8%
all 51 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 43% -10.8%
10% -21.9% 35% -19.3%
15% -29.4% 29% -27.1%
20% -36.4% 24% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage103d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 +$3 +27%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $7 +$7 +97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $18 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $111 −$110 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $70 +$40 +57%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $26 +$44 +165%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $176 −$176 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $157 +$46 +29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $138 +$20 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $128 +$9 +7%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $164 +$43 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $70 +$15 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $43 +$21 +48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $37 +$6 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$5 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$3 +8%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $19 +$11 +60%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$5 +129%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Hamnet" win no awards at the Oscars? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Frankenstein" win no awards at the Oscars? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $70 29h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 31h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $176 32h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $157 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 87¢ $138 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $128 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 61¢ $79 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 59¢ $79 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 62¢ $85 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $70 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $64 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $37 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $31 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 98 history records