Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3909…a12e sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,196 (-55%) realized −$1,092 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,039
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -56.2%
≤30d 10 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -56.2%
≤90d 10 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -56.2%
all 10 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -56.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 40% -56.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.3% 30% -60.4%
15% -46.9% 30% -64.2%
20% -52.1% 30% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$216 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$1,092
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 24¢ 10¢ $48 $21 −$27 (-56%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Leviatán Esports 37¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $170 +$190 +112%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $82 +$105 +128%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $442 −$440 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $271 −$270 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $453 +$42 +9%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $435 −$431 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $41 +$24 +59%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 17¢ $8 17m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 21¢ $10 18m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 26¢ $10 19m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 29¢ $21 22m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $198 41m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 46¢ $88 50m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 25¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 19¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 41¢ $8 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 31¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $7 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 22¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner SELL Paper Rex 79¢ $74 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 52¢ $51 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 22¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 23¢ $5 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 58¢ $20 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $20 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $21 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 91¢ $96 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 85¢ $90 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $20 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $21 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 41¢ $21 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 29¢ $21 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 20¢ $134 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.33 · official $21.33 (match) · 148 history records