Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3907…3e7d
crypto · 483 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$395 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$348 · open −$48
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$221
Realized−$348
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses173 / 310
Open positions4
Markets (closed)483 / 483
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day249.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 483 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$293
7 days−$348
14 days−$348
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $139 $128 −$11 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $44 $67 +$22 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 41¢ 100¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+143%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 45¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Claudio Tapia out as AFA President by July 19, 2026? Yes 52¢ 4¢ $47 $3 −$44 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 94¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$47 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$58 +468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$18 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$13 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$13 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$12 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$16 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$12 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$293
other 5% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 483 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 31% -17.3%
≤30d 483 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 31% -17.3%
≤90d 483 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 31% -17.3%
all 483 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 31% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover249.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 31% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 28% -25.2%
15% -37.7% 24% -32.5%
20% -43.8% 20% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.70 · official $221.63 (match) · 3500 history records