Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x3906…4b42
crypto · 1596 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$85 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$643 · open −$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$812
Realized−$643
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1548 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions52
Markets (closed)1596 / 1596
History coverage37d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 52 History 1596 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$706
7 days−$693
14 days−$699
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 90¢ 100¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+11%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 98¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Down 98¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? No 100¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 98¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jared Golden be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 99¢ 98¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paige Loud be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 100¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 100¢ 97¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 9PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on January 2, 20 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 9AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - April 23, 1AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 9PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 17, 9AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 4AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in November? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 19, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on December 17? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 28, 10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 7PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Not Quite Dead Yet (Holly Jackson) win Readers' Favorite Mystery Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 2, 20 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 21, 8PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 23, 12PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-9.5) vs Bebop (+9.5) Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 48% +$54
other 25% −$50
sports 7% +$6
politics 5% −$14
tech 4% +$3
finance 4% +$4
world 3% +$3
culture 2% +$3
economics 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 22m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $17 3h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 99¢ $17 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 99¢ $17 5h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $17 5h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $17 5h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 99¢ $17 5h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: KOLESIE (-9.5) vs Bebop (+9.5) BUY KOLESIE 100¢ $17 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $17 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $17 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $17 13h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY No 99¢ $17 25h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY No 100¢ $17 25h
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 20+ times during the U BUY No 98¢ $17 25h
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI BUY No 99¢ $17 25h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI BUY Yes 100¢ $17 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $17 25h
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac BUY No 98¢ $17 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -18.8% -26.5% 81% 1% -27.3%
≤30d 1130 -3.1% -12.3% 96% 1% -12.8%
≤90d 1596 -2.2% -11.5% 97% 1% -11.9%
all 1596 -2.2% -11.5% 97% 1% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 1% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 0% -20.3%
15% -27.7% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.45 · official $812.45 (match) · 3500 history records