Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3903…3fde politics 140 markets active 3d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$8
politics 33% −$7
sports 10% +$16
economics 6% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 139 -0.6% -10.0% 7% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$0 · ×12.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage125d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $225 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $410 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $174 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $190 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $98 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $208 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $196 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 18d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 23d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $103 23d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $103 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $104 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $74 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $30 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.99 · official $10.99 (match) · 448 history records