Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x3902…9691 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+8%) realized −$9 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$108
other 45% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 86% 57% +7.9%
≤30d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 86% 57% +7.9%
≤90d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 86% 57% +7.9%
all 7 +11.2% +0.6% 86% 57% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 57% +7.9%
10% -9.0% 29% -2.4%
15% -17.8% 29% -11.9%
20% -25.9% 0% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$4 · ×4.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.14 per $1 lost it wins $28.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 100¢ $110 $162 +$52 (+47%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$3 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $110 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $204 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.17 · official $235.17 (match) · 21 history records