Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x3901…394b other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 19% −$2
politics 11% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 0% -9.2%
all 45 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage460d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $71 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $2 −$2 -81%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $1 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110000 on May 16? May 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $12 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 9? May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or higher on May May 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? May 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $51 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $51 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $46 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $13 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $33 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $46 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $30 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $16 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.39 · official $28.39 (match) · 125 history records