Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

39 0x3900…fb4e sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,003 (+90%) realized +$1,926 · open +$77

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%6W / 10L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$111per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$280

7 days+$342

14 days+$1,836

30 days+$1,836

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+13.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+10.4%	-0.1%	33%	33%	+14.8%
≤30d	16	+25.3%	+13.4%	38%	38%	+79.3%
≤90d	16	+25.3%	+13.4%	38%	38%	+79.3%
all	16	+25.3%	+13.4%	38%	38%	+79.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.4%	38%	+79.3%
10%	+2.5%	38%	+62.2%
15%	-7.4%	38%	+46.5%
20%	-16.4%	38%	+32.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +98% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +98% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +35% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$433 vs −$76 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$405

Realized+$1,926

Unrealized+$77

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses6 / 10

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions4

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage13d

Avg bet$111

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?	Yes	7¢	13¢	$91	$177	+$86 (+95%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$96	$106	+$10 (+11%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Over	39¢	62¢	$44	$70	+$26 (+59%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	IR Iran	28¢	15¢	$97	$52	−$45 (-46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$50	−$49	-98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Jun 15	$53	+$139	+262%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$101	−$99	-98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$50	−$30	-59%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?	Jun 14	$139	+$394	+283%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$47	−$46	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$100	+$196	+197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$128	−$126	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$101	+$229	+226%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$103	−$101	-98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes	Jun 13	$104	−$102	-99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$99	+$144	+146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$109	−$107	-98%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Jun 03	$598	+$1,494	+250%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY IR Iran	28¢	$99	2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	30¢	$50	4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$45	4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?	BUY Yes	7¢	$97	20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$101	22h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	27¢	$53	25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	9¢	$20	25h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?	SELL Yes	45¢	$533	27h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$50	28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$47	28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	33¢	$100	43h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$128	44h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	31¢	$51	47h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	20¢	$51	47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	30¢	$101	2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$103	2d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes	BUY Hanwha Eagles	53¢	$104	2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?	BUY Yes	11¢	$139	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	40¢	$99	2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$109	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$98	10d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	SELL Yes	88¢	$2,092	12d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY Yes	24¢	$4	13d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY Yes	24¢	$594	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $405.42 · official $405.42 (match) · 40 history records