Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
38 0x38ff…d851 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$117 (+1%) realized +$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate31%20W / 45L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$12
other 16% +$32
politics 8% −$5
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% +$101
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +26.7% +14.6% 20% 20% -8.5%
≤30d 16 +8.3% -2.1% 6% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 51 +13.0% +2.2% 29% 24% -8.1%
all 65 +12.0% +1.4% 31% 22% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 22% -9.0%
10% -8.3% 22% -17.7%
15% -17.2% 18% -25.7%
20% -25.3% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses20 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage610d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $5 +$6 +134%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $444 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $221 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $229 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $387 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $544 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$10 +50%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $182 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $184 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $191 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $12 +$9 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 +$10 +79%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $14 +$10 +72%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $15 +$14 +89%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-03-27? Mar 31 $21 +$9 +43%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $25 +$24 +96%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 26 $35 +$18 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 25h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $5 29h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Casper Ruud be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $24 2d
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $91 5d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 15d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 100¢ $16 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.70 · official $131.70 (match) · 260 history records