Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
38 0x38ff…c979 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+11%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$96
other 16% +$1
crypto 10% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.8% -2.5% 90% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 10 +7.8% -2.5% 90% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 10 +7.8% -2.5% 90% 50% +0.3%
all 10 +7.8% -2.5% 90% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 50% +0.3%
10% -11.8% 20% -9.3%
15% -20.3% 20% -18.1%
20% -28.2% 10% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×11.14 per $1 lost it wins $11.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 56¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $157 +$17 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $155 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $132 +$24 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $121 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 +$15 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $94 +$7 +8%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $21 +$15 +70%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $41 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.31 · official $35.31 (match) · 22 history records