Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38fe…a923 other 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37,346 (-8%) realized −$37,346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%188W / 139L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,362per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,330
7 days−$3,214
14 days−$3,590
30 days−$3,282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$31,561
sports 9% −$5,282
world 0% −$475
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 42% -23.1%
≤30d 60 -16.4% -24.3% 47% 45% -21.0%
≤90d 174 -30.1% -36.7% 42% 39% -56.4%
all 327 -3.4% -12.6% 57% 51% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 51% -17.2%
10% -21.0% 39% -25.1%
15% -28.6% 25% -32.3%
20% -35.6% 16% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$1,087) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$558 vs −$1,038 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37,346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses188 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions0
Markets (closed)327 / 325
History coverage241d
Avg bet$1,362
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 327 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,589 +$726 +20%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,893 +$269 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,543 −$2,057 -58%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $262 −$256 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $607 −$598 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$8 +109%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,465 −$2,407 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,221 +$881 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,890 +$972 +34%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,524 +$385 +25%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $170 −$73 -43%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $49 +$21 +44%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $30 +$21 +72%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $89 +$83 +93%
LoL: GOAL vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $38 +$21 +57%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $21 −$21 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $44 −$24 -55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $19 +$21 +109%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $379 −$374 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $82 +$16 +20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $127 −$21 -16%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $34 +$19 +57%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $44 +$63 +142%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 03 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $325 +$266 +82%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $27 −$26 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: F9 Team vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs Jun 01 $43 +$17 +39%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $113 −$110 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $431 −$422 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $71 +$63 +88%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $214 −$210 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $236 −$232 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $28 −$28 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 29 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs May 29 $7 −$6 -98%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 29 $377 +$805 +213%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr May 28 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $90 +$31 +34%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $188 −$187 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $3,162 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $711 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1,634 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $548 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,165 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $44 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $25 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $42 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $42 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $42 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $12 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,488 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $309 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $6 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $182 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $191 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $42 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 57¢ $1,405 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $1,033 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 31¢ $790 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 49¢ $627 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 43¢ $1,093 10h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 17¢ $262 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $2 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $62 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $81 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 32¢ $460 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $3 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $7 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 11¢ $112 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2088 history records