Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x38fe…4c18 world 381 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,256 (+2%) realized +$15,447 · open +$809
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate75%280W / 94L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$2,431per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$31,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$974
14 days+$2,749
30 days+$4,968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$9,813
other 17% +$2,864
politics 9% +$1,068
tech 3% +$396
crypto 2% +$1,404
finance 1% +$176
sports 0% +$41
culture 0% −$14
economics 0% −$5
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.8% -12.1% 70% 15% -7.1%
≤30d 85 +9.3% -1.1% 69% 9% -6.7%
≤90d 347 +0.6% -9.0% 74% 10% -8.0%
all 374 +4.0% -5.9% 75% 9% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 9% -7.9%
10% -14.9% 5% -16.8%
15% ← realistic here -23.1% 3% -24.8%
20% -30.7% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$2,054) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$35 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.85 per $1 lost it wins $5.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$31,803
Realized+$15,447
Unrealized+$809
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses280 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)374 / 381
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$2,431
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $16,766 $17,318 +$552 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5,598 $5,733 +$135 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $4,399 $4,483 +$84 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $3,804 $3,848 +$44 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $315 $315 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $102 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $6,355 +$91 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $95 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,929 +$375 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $2,219 −$498 -22%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $67 +$4 +5%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $2,867 +$155 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4,818 +$69 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $960 +$30 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,442 +$8 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6,884 +$506 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2,052 +$67 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $5,938 +$164 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $116 +$15 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $69 −$14 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6,007 +$50 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $470 +$28 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $95 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $18 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $460 −$45 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $90 +$26 +29%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18,181 +$1,410 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +15%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 02 $2,663 +$161 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $891 +$4 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $5,658 +$148 +3%
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,187 +$7 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5,604 +$109 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,043 +$61 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5,804 +$463 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $4,464 +$66 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $16 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $1,740 +$43 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $2,134 +$39 +2%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $247 +$4 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 31 $307 +$6 +2%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $984 +$7 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $206 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $6,097 +$82 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $190 +$8 +4%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 30 $9 −$9 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $773 10m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $21 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 11m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 11m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $315 22m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5,964 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $881 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,063 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $507 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $61 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $311 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $951 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 95¢ $952 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $381 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $102 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $2,013 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $93 11h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 99¢ $1,976 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $26 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $29 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $47 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $167 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $157 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $3 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,208 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $336 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $93 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,803.09 · official $31,803.10 (match) · 3500 history records