trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? | Dec 10 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? | May 17 | $7 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? | May 17 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | May 12 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | May 10 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect | May 10 | $7 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | May 09 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 09 | $3 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 07 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 17 | $7 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 15 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 14 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana | Apr 13 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 13 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | Apr 12 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 21 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un | Mar 06 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 5? | Mar 05 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| North Dakota vs. South Dakota | Mar 04 | $15 | +$9 | +61% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -0.4% | -9.9% | 0% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 27 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 70% | 7% | -12.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 7% | -12.7% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 7% | -21.0% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 4% | -28.7% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 4% | -35.6% |