Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38f8…6c6a
sports · 12 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$74 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36 · open +$95
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$213
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage145d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 100¢ $100 $181 +$81 (+81%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 100¢ $18 $32 +$14 (+79%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$34 -64%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$133 +649%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $187 −$184 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$173 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $59 +$57 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $69 +$142 +206%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 23? Jan 20 $9 +$9 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$243
other 47% −$91
politics 3% −$30
crypto 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +87.6% +69.7% 50% 50% -2.7%
≤30d 8 +87.6% +69.7% 50% 50% -2.7%
≤90d 8 +87.6% +69.7% 50% 50% -2.7%
all 10 +69.8% +53.7% 50% 50% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.7% 50% -5.4%
10% +39.0% 50% -14.5%
15% +25.5% 50% -22.8%
20% +13.2% 50% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.07 · official $213.07 (match) · 19 history records