Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38f7…1c8f weather 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$577 (+3%) realized +$640 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate80%202W / 51L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$212
14 days+$422
30 days+$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$499
other 9% −$33
economics 0% +$6
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 4% -7.0%
≤30d 113 +2.2% -7.6% 89% 9% -6.2%
≤90d 253 -6.7% -15.6% 80% 14% -6.6%
all 253 -6.7% -15.6% 80% 14% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 14% -6.6%
10% -23.7% 5% -15.6%
15% -31.1% 3% -23.7%
20% -37.8% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized+$640
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses202 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)253 / 255
History coverage54d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? No 97¢ 89¢ $552 $504 −$47 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? No 95¢ 92¢ $474 $458 −$16 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $490 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $715 +$25 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $165 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $418 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $472 +$48 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $441 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $194 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $126 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $190 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $283 +$17 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $589 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $330 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $111 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $87 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $747 +$38 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $459 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $367 +$31 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $676 +$45 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $233 −$16 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $24 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $391 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $580 +$51 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $196 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 08 $151 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $431 +$20 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $550 +$36 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $58 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $392 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $587 +$27 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $195 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $151 −$12 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $238 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $499 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $95 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $95 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $196 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $490 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $74 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $36 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $176 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $22 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $133 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $439 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $25 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $34 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $135 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $98 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $34 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $41 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $25 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $13 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $79 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $50 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $46 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.69 · official $953.76 (match) · 871 history records