Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38f5…6824
politics · 431 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$6,274 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13,189 · open −$8,629
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34,411
Realized+$13,189
Unrealized−$8,629
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses182 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions66
Markets (closed)373 / 431
History coverage46d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 66 History 373 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$2,257
14 days−$9
30 days+$9,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $12,500 $21,212 +$8,712 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $12,500 $3,788 −$8,712 (-70%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,321 $2,412 +$92 (+4%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $1,210 $1,140 −$70 (-6%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $890 $915 +$25 (+3%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $379 $422 +$43 (+11%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 68¢ 66¢ $391 $380 −$12 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $316 $312 −$4 (-1%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $332 $306 −$26 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $284 $292 +$8 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $268 $286 +$18 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $272 $275 +$2 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $258 $263 +$5 (+2%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $194 $200 +$7 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $206 $191 −$15 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $181 $183 +$2 (+1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 33¢ 36¢ $163 $180 +$17 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 62¢ $116 $140 +$25 (+21%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? No 72¢ 82¢ $79 $91 +$12 (+15%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $73 $89 +$16 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 64¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? No 58¢ 51¢ $90 $78 −$11 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 59 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 12 $30 −$4 -12%
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 56 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will "How to Make a Killing" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $63 −$5 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $57 +$13 +22%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $190 +$54 +28%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $922 +$252 +27%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,576 +$1,580 +100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $280 −$17 -6%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $25 +$30 +117%
Will Trump say "Star" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $34 +$17 +52%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +166%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $43 +$7 +17%
Will Trump say "Fraud" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $19 +$31 +157%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $384 +$35 +9%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $67 +$23 +34%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $0 +$5 +4900%
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Trump announce John Ratcliffe as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Pete Hoekstra as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $4,000 −$2,000 -50%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $300 −$150 -50%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3,007 +$2 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $323 −$1 -0%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $216 +$38 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $493 +$19 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $785 −$32 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $23 +$8 +34%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $4,235 $0 +0%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $116 +$241 +207%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $228 +$22 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $43 +$2 +5%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $3,016 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $111 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $180 +$17 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% −$5,687
world 25% +$1,763
other 20% +$2,874
crypto 11% +$3,343
economics 4% +$2,937
culture 4% $0
finance 3% +$205
sports 2% −$698
tech 1% −$16
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $135 0m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $133 1m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $286 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $200 28m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $59 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $12 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 22¢ $70 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $4 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $59 2h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 4h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $263 5h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $200 5h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $127 5h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $72 5h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $57 5h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 6h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $204 6h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $71 7h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,634 7h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +49.1% +34.9% 56% 38% -15.0%
≤30d 282 +35.6% +22.7% 48% 35% +0.2%
≤90d 373 +32.6% +20.0% 49% 35% +1.3%
all 373 +32.6% +20.0% 49% 35% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 35% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 27% -8.3%
15% -2.0% 21% -17.2%
20% -11.6% 18% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,411.36 · official $34,411.56 (match) · 3500 history records