Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38f1…9ff1 other 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 171d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,953 (-3%) realized −$15,890 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%320W / 292L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,071per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$3,928est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 171d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$4,680
sports 46% −$18,683
world 0% +$1,342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -48.0% -53.0% 27% 22% -61.4%
≤30d 221 -26.5% -33.5% 42% 39% -29.2%
≤90d 476 -12.2% -20.5% 51% 49% -20.5%
all 612 -7.1% -16.0% 52% 51% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 51% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 47% -26.2%
15% -31.4% 41% -33.4%
20% -38.1% 32% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,220) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$590 vs −$892 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$896
Realized−$15,890
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses320 / 292
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3,928
Open positions2
Markets (closed)612 / 571
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$1,071
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ 60¢ $666 $660 −$6 (-1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 63¢ 50¢ $293 $236 −$57 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 248 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29? Jun 19 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-27? Jun 19 $1,099 −$1,099 -100%
Will AZ win on 2025-09-21? Jun 19 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-06? Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,007 −$2,007 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-28? Jun 19 $2,280 −$2,280 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-10-27? Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Jun 19 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? Jun 19 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Will Monaco win on 2025-09-18? Jun 19 $1,162 −$1,162 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 19 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-27? Jun 19 $433 −$433 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-20? Jun 19 $1,767 −$1,767 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-09-21? Jun 19 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2025-09-13? Jun 19 $2,171 −$2,188 -101%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-27? Jun 19 $402 −$402 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-27? Jun 19 $2,486 −$2,486 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27? Jun 19 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Jun 19 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-18? Jun 19 $1,711 −$1,711 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09? Jun 19 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01? Jun 19 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 19 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-13? Jun 19 $1,370 −$1,370 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-02? Jun 19 $1,830 −$1,830 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-27? Jun 19 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-09-13? Jun 19 $2,663 −$2,663 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-09? Jun 19 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5) Jun 19 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-16? Jun 19 $2,583 −$2,583 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-20? Jun 19 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-09-20? Jun 19 $1,308 −$1,308 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-16? Jun 19 $2,642 −$2,642 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-09-20? Jun 19 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-09-20? Jun 19 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-18? Jun 19 $1,890 −$1,890 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-18? Jun 19 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-20? Jun 19 $321 −$321 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 19 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 19 $880 −$880 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-13? Jun 19 $3,260 −$3,260 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-21? Jun 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 19 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $555 −$265 -48%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $404 −$269 -67%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $108 +$447 +414%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $1,309 +$128 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $930 +$402 +43%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $450 −$450 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $376 −$130 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 63¢ $294 7m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $54 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $81 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $98 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $88 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $30 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $197 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $34 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $267 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $29 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $14 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 59¢ $3 3h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $285 10h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $2 13h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $2 13h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $8 14h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 24¢ $65 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 29¢ $79 16h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $3 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 27¢ $147 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 45¢ $46 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 45¢ $196 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 45¢ $4 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 45¢ $4 16h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 55¢ $305 16h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 39¢ $126 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $896.39 · official $896.39 (match) · 3500 history records