trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 70¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+24%) |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? | No | 1¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+79%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | May 23 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | BUY No | 57¢ | $2 | 1h |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? | BUY No | 1¢ | $1 | 1h |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY Yes | 100¢ | $1 | 13d |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY Yes | 100¢ | $1 | 13d |
| Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | SELL Usyk | 99¢ | $2 | 21d |
| Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven | BUY Usyk | 94¢ | $2 | 21d |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY No | 91¢ | $1 | 21d |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY Yes | 98¢ | $1 | 21d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -6.2% |
| all | 3 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.8% | 0% | -6.2% |
| 10% | -13.9% | 0% | -15.2% |
| 15% | -22.2% | 0% | -23.4% |
| 20% | -29.8% | 0% | -30.9% |