Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:20:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
38 0x38ef…33c0 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+6%) realized +$34 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 75% -0.9%
≤30d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 75% -0.9%
≤90d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 75% -0.9%
all 4 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 75% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 75% -0.9%
10% -16.7% 50% -10.3%
15% -24.7% 50% -19.0%
20% -32.1% 0% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$32 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.11 · official $138.97 · 11 history records