Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:50:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38ec…4019 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$257 (-44%) realized −$173 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$194
14 days−$262
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$152
other 34% −$92
crypto 28% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -27.0% -34.0% 29% 29% -82.8%
≤30d 25 -25.1% -32.3% 32% 32% -66.9%
≤90d 25 -25.1% -32.3% 32% 32% -66.9%
all 25 -25.1% -32.3% 32% 32% -66.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 32% -66.9%
10% -38.7% 32% -70.0%
15% -44.7% 32% -72.9%
20% -50.1% 20% -75.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 22¢ $105 $53 −$52 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $42 $10 −$32 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$10 +490%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $42 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a dr BUY 3¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $16 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $53 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.88 · official $62.88 (match) · 52 history records