Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
38 0x38eb…5a6d sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$218 (+62%) realized +$219 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +56% what you keep after slip
Net edge+56%after slip
Net WR90%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$175
other 17% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +90%
net ROI/market (all)+61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +78.9% +61.9% 90% 90% +72.9%
≤30d 10 +78.9% +61.9% 90% 90% +72.9%
≤90d 10 +78.9% +61.9% 90% 90% +72.9%
all 10 +78.9% +61.9% 90% 90% +72.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.9% 90% +72.9%
10% +46.4% 90% +56.3%
15% +32.2% 90% +41.2%
20% +19.3% 90% +27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +91% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$4 · ×6.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×58.0 per $1 lost it wins $58.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$23 +90%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 +$38 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$4 -37%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 +$16 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$18 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland BUY 30¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $43 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $20 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 26h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $31 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 45h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $61 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $39 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 90¢ $43 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $23 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.17 · official $111.17 · 29 history records