Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:35:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38e9…736d sports 656 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$670 (-7%) realized −$665 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%373W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$10
14 days+$35
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$520
other 24% −$212
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% +$2
politics 0% −$9
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +7.0% -3.2% 67% 67% -9.9%
≤30d 111 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 64% -12.3%
≤90d 368 -2.5% -11.8% 57% 57% -13.5%
all 650 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 57% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 57% -16.3%
10% -22.7% 54% -24.3%
15% -30.1% 41% -31.6%
20% -37.0% 29% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$665
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses373 / 277
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)650 / 656
History coverage147d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Over 72¢ 69¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +29%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $32 +$23 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $30 +$14 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$12 +29%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $27 +$17 +62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $40 +$14 +36%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 +$34 +119%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$23 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +42%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$13 +32%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$26 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$32 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$10 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $46 +$12 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $39 +$12 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$29 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28 +$11 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 +$25 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$25 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 72¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $33 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $35 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 15h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 17h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $30 20h
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20h
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 20h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 27h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $27 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 77¢ $40 37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 38h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $40 41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $30 41h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $30 43h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $9 43h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $30 44h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 44h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $19 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 2d
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.25 · official $104.26 (match) · 1336 history records