Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38e6…4ca6 crypto 717 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$201 (-3%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%316W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day296.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$882
14 days−$472
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 -24.4% -31.6% 37% 34% -35.5%
≤30d 717 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 42% -15.4%
≤90d 717 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 42% -15.4%
all 717 -9.6% -18.2% 44% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover296.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 42% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 41% -23.5%
15% -33.2% 37% -30.9%
20% -39.7% 30% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses316 / 401
Open positions0
Markets (closed)717 / 717
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day296.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 717 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$18 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$23 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $37 −$27 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records