Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38e5…d36c sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-12%) realized −$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$22
other 38% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-69.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -66.7% -69.9% 14% 14% -35.7%
≤30d 7 -66.7% -69.9% 14% 14% -35.7%
≤90d 7 -66.7% -69.9% 14% 14% -35.7%
all 7 -66.7% -69.9% 14% 14% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.9% 14% -35.7%
10% -72.8% 14% -41.9%
15% -75.4% 14% -47.5%
20% -77.8% 0% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -67% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$13 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 20h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.99 · official $191.00 (match) · 16 history records