Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38e2…2909
crypto · 926 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,069 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,169 · open +$101
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,999
Realized−$1,169
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses689 / 392
Open positions96
Markets (closed)1081 / 926
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day724.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 96 History 1081 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,818
7 days−$1,169
14 days−$1,169
30 days−$1,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? No 58¢ 100¢ $89 $153 +$64 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? No 57¢ 100¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 80¢ 96¢ $69 $83 +$14 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? No 80¢ 84¢ $71 $75 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $55 $65 +$10 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 82¢ 81¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 61¢ 100¢ $37 $61 +$24 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? No 83¢ 100¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? No 75¢ 88¢ $48 $57 +$9 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 99¢ $22 $56 +$34 (+152%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? No 77¢ 78¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 83¢ 82¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? No 82¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 79¢ 77¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? No 66¢ 100¢ $27 $41 +$14 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $19 $35 +$15 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 81¢ 66¢ $41 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 17¢ 30¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? No 77¢ 79¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 75¢ 63¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $12 $21 +$9 (+78%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 9? Jun 13 $13 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 9? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +117%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 26? Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 40°C on May 27? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 58% +$1,494
crypto 42% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $7 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 55m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 56¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1081 -13.4% -21.6% 64% 27% -19.1%
≤30d 1081 -13.4% -21.6% 64% 27% -19.1%
≤90d 1081 -13.4% -21.6% 64% 27% -19.1%
all 1081 -13.4% -21.6% 64% 27% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover724.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 27% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 17% -26.9%
15% -36.0% 11% -33.9%
20% -42.3% 8% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,998.67 · official $1,990.83 (match) · 3500 history records