Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38e2…ae3c crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$88 (-17%) realized −$84 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%127W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$58
other 11% −$20
sports 7% −$4
culture 2% −$10
weather 1% −$5
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -20.7% -28.3% 45% 37% -29.1%
≤30d 115 -20.7% -28.3% 45% 37% -29.1%
≤90d 166 -13.2% -21.5% 52% 42% -25.0%
all 268 -19.4% -27.1% 47% 40% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 40% -27.2%
10% -34.1% 32% -34.2%
15% -40.4% 25% -40.6%
20% -46.3% 22% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses127 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)268 / 274
History coverage105d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +154%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 51m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 51m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 43¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.12 · official $8.22 (match) · 534 history records