Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38e0…6e50
sports · 135 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$20 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses43 / 87
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)130 / 135
History coverage93d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$60
14 days+$122
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 52¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+150%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 38¢ 36¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Nets Nets 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Clippers Raptors 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Knicks Wizards 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Nets 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Suns vs. Spurs Suns 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea South Korea 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. 76ers 76ers 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Celtics Warriors 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Wizards Wizards 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Thunder Bulls 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nets Nets 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +165%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$5 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $4 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $5 +$9 +180%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $11 +$14 +123%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $7 −$1 -14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$7 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $6 +$8 +134%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $6 +$7 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $5 +$7 +134%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 +$7 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 +$50 +197%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $12 −$12 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$12 +226%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$17 +166%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $6 +$8 +128%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $6 +$7 +120%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5 +$7 +128%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 +$21 +206%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $5 +$9 +172%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $10 +$18 +180%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $6 +$9 +139%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +126%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $5 +$5 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $6 +$6 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$27
other 2% +$14
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $3 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $5 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $5 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $5 31h
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $10 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $4 2d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming 35¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $5 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M SELL Geek Fam ID 100¢ $14 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $5 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Geek Fam ID 35¢ $5 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $12 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 1¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $6 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $6 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $6 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 28¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $11 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 3d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 42¢ $6 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $6 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $5 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $6 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.7% -4.3% 44% 44% +24.4%
≤30d 78 +5.3% -4.7% 41% 41% +2.3%
≤90d 125 -9.6% -18.2% 34% 34% -8.6%
all 130 -12.3% -20.7% 33% 33% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 33% -11.2%
10% -28.3% 33% -19.7%
15% -35.2% 32% -27.5%
20% -41.6% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $35.58 (match) · 231 history records