Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

38 0x38e0…c5aa other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$69 (-7%) realized +$29 · open −$98

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate22%7W / 25L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day23.4pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit51%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)-33.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	32	-26.4%	-33.4%	22%	19%	-18.7%
≤30d	32	-26.4%	-33.4%	22%	19%	-18.7%
≤90d	32	-26.4%	-33.4%	22%	19%	-18.7%
all	32	-26.4%	-33.4%	22%	19%	-18.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover23.4 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-33.4%	19%	-18.7%
10% ← realistic here	-39.8%	16%	-26.5%
15%	-45.6%	16%	-33.6%
20%	-50.9%	16%	-40.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -29% → late -24% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$13 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$29

Unrealized−$98

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses7 / 25

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)32 / 35

History coverage5d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day23.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	54¢	12¢	$5	$1	−$4 (-77%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-97%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half	No	90¢	0¢	$90	$0	−$90 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$87	+$13	+14%
IR Iran leading at halftime?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$26	−$26	-100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay?	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay?	Jun 16	$9	−$9	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$13	−$13	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$10	+$78	+784%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 15	$20	+$25	+123%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 15	$20	+$47	+237%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador?	Jun 15	$9	−$9	-100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador?	Jun 15	$41	−$13	-32%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador?	Jun 15	$16	$0	+2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$20	+$45	+224%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 12	$20	+$22	+108%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur	Jun 12	$34	−$34	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$387	−$20	-5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	46m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	50m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY No	90¢	$90	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	87¢	$87	18h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	37¢	$26	21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	6¢	$6	23h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	23h
IR Iran leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	39¢	$4	23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay?	BUY Yes	9¢	$9	29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	13¢	$13	29h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	100¢	$88	29h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL BetBoom Team	100¢	$45	30h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	30h
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	24¢	$20	32h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	60¢	$50	32h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY BetBoom Team	44¢	$20	33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$67	43h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	29¢	$20	44h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	46h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador?	SELL No	100¢	$16	46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador?	SELL No	100¢	$28	46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	5¢	$8	47h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	4¢	$13	47h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	47h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador?	BUY No	100¢	$28	47h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador?	BUY No	98¢	$16	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.38 · official $2.42 · 132 history records