Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38de…f06c other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156 (+9%) realized +$155 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$202
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$51
sports 33% +$267
crypto 4% −$68
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +26.7% +14.7% 32% 29% +2.9%
≤30d 52 -5.1% -14.2% 25% 23% -1.7%
≤90d 52 -5.1% -14.2% 25% 23% -1.7%
all 52 -5.1% -14.2% 25% 23% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 23% -1.7%
10% -22.4% 19% -11.1%
15% -29.9% 15% -19.7%
20% -36.7% 15% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$16 · ×3.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage11d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $113 −$6 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$39 -85%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$49 +241%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$34 +22%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $301 +$53 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$54 +267%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $173 +$192 +111%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$61 -85%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -87%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -80%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $31 +$169 +549%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$167 +1807%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 50m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 58m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 7¢ $107 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $237 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $12 20h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $58 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $25 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.00 · official $24.00 (match) · 174 history records