Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38dd…e656
crypto · 322 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$790 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,485 · open +$580
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,104
Realized−$1,485
Unrealized+$580
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses96 / 218
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions8
Markets (closed)314 / 322
History coverage48d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 314 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$519
7 days−$854
14 days−$1,301
30 days−$1,436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $702 $890 +$189 (+27%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 65¢ $470 $780 +$310 (+66%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Down 29¢ 44¢ $91 $136 +$45 (+49%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $109 $100 −$9 (-8%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 18¢ 31¢ $46 $78 +$32 (+69%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Yes 14¢ 37¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+170%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $74 +$149 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $74 −$45 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$19 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -54%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $22 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$6 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $86 +$26 +31%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $50 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $133 +$7 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$40 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +91%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $89 +$25 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $117 −$75 -64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$5 -18%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 −$8 -40%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $15 −$14 -90%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $48 −$31 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $146 −$73 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $395 +$216 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$31 +292%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 10 $23 +$4 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% −$917
world 25% +$44
sports 17% +$514
finance 11% −$514
politics 1% −$11
other 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 15m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $151 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 23¢ $5 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 22¢ $5 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 22¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 43m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 15¢ $5 46m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 14¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 25¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 17¢ $5 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $5 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 37¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 38¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 41¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -24.3% -31.5% 30% 28% -27.1%
≤30d 235 -20.7% -28.2% 29% 27% -24.0%
≤90d 314 -17.6% -25.4% 31% 29% -20.3%
all 314 -17.6% -25.4% 31% 29% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 29% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 28% -28.0%
15% -39.1% 25% -34.9%
20% -45.1% 24% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,103.50 · official $2,103.50 (match) · 1616 history records