Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x38d7…a061 weather 808 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-0%) realized −$205 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%796W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day153.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$182
14 days+$380
30 days+$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$594
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 251 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 798 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 798 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 798 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×144.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×57483.4 per $1 lost it wins $57483.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3,781
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses796 / 2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)798 / 808
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$253
Trades / day153.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $598 $600 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $600 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $599 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $399 $400 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $295 $295 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $253 $253 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $293 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 23 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 23 $443 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $495 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 21? Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 21? Jun 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 21? Jun 22 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 81°F or below on June 21? Jun 22 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 22 $253 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $35 54m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $253 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $278 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $599 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $87 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $599 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $66 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $399 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $598 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $599 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $599 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $499 14h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $9 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $229 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $105 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $338 18h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $499 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $499 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,781.14 · official $3,781.14 (match) · 3500 history records