Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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38 0x38d7…a329 crypto 961 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-1%) realized −$236 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate66%713W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$574
7 days−$574
14 days−$574
30 days−$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
other 0% −$36
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 120 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 120 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1079 -11.5% -19.9% 66% 20% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 20% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 16% -20.0%
15% -34.6% 16% -27.7%
20% -41.0% 16% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -116% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses713 / 366
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1079 / 961
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1079 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $54 $38 −$16 (-29%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 283 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 2 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on January 22 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on January 24 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on January Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$5 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $35 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $31 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $17 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $35 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $14 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $35 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $34 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $33 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $33 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.45 · official $38.92 (match) · 3500 history records