Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d6…7b6f crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%14W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$23
other 37% +$7
sports 10% +$24
world 5% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 29% -11.7%
≤30d 48 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 29% -11.7%
≤90d 48 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 29% -11.7%
all 48 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 29% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 29% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 29% -20.2%
15% -28.2% 17% -27.9%
20% -35.3% 15% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$9 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 +$20 +650%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $35 +$26 +73%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$56 +549%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.76 · official $14.76 (match) · 109 history records