Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d6…d072 weather 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+1%) realized +$145 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate88%386W / 51L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days+$329
14 days+$480
30 days+$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$278
world 2% +$182
politics 1% +$10
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 10% -6.5%
≤30d 270 +1.2% -8.4% 88% 9% -7.2%
≤90d 437 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 7% -8.3%
all 437 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 7% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 5% -17.0%
15% -26.5% 3% -25.0%
20% -33.7% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses386 / 51
Open positions8
Markets (closed)437 / 444
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $318 $338 +$20 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $128 $136 +$7 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $237 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $107 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $112 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $304 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +172%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $192 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $265 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $293 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $122 +$16 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $144 +$26 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $47 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$3 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $257 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $418 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $131 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $203 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $151 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $269 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $146 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $139 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $212 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $253 −$13 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $108 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.21 · official $589.87 (match) · 3500 history records