Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38d2…4d20
politics · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$25
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)1 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 52¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? No 49¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 76¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? No 98¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Club The Strongest to score first vs. Club Aurora? Yes 85¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Club Always Ready vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5 Over 85¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Club Aurora to score first vs. Club The Strongest? Yes 85¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
CDT RealOruro vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 5.5 Over 90¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Club The Strongest vs. Club Aurora: O/U 5.5 Over 85¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Club Bolívar vs. Bamin Real Potosí: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 58% $0
sports 23% −$3
world 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? BUY No 98¢ $1 48m
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? SELL No 93¢ $0 1h
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 1h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 7h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 7h
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 12h
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 12h
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? SELL No 57¢ $0 13h
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? SELL No 57¢ $0 13h
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? SELL No 57¢ $0 13h
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? BUY No 49¢ $1 13h
Club Aurora to score first vs. Club The Strongest? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 15h
Club The Strongest to score first vs. Club Aurora? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 15h
Club The Strongest vs. Club Aurora: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 15h
Club Always Ready vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 15h
CDT RealOruro vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 15h
Club Bolívar vs. Bamin Real Potosí: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 15¢ $0 15h
Club Bolívar vs. Bamin Real Potosí: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 15h
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic p BUY Yes 95¢ $1 16h
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic p BUY Yes 99¢ $1 16h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 24h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $1 24h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? BUY No 76¢ $1 29h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $1 32h
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -82.9% -84.5% 0% 0% -84.5%
≤30d 1 -82.9% -84.5% 0% 0% -84.5%
≤90d 1 -82.9% -84.5% 0% 0% -84.5%
all 1 -82.9% -84.5% 0% 0% -84.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -84.5% 0% -84.5%
10% ← realistic here -86.0% 0% -86.0%
15% -87.4% 0% -87.4%
20% -88.6% 0% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.04 · official $25.05 (match) · 32 history records