Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d1…ac96 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$810 (-59%) realized −$831 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$829
crypto 17% −$35
sports 11% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 39% -74.2%
≤30d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 39% -74.2%
≤90d 36 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 39% -74.2%
all 36 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 39% -74.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 39% -74.2%
10% -30.4% 31% -76.7%
15% -37.1% 19% -78.9%
20% -43.3% 11% -81.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$50 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$831
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 87¢ 100¢ $145 $166 +$21 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $998 −$829 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 87¢ $136 36m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 87¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.94 · official $165.94 (match) · 116 history records