Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d0…52ed other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$258 (-39%) realized −$256 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$236
politics 13% +$52
sports 12% −$8
world 8% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -44.4% -49.7% 17% 17% -58.8%
≤30d 18 -44.4% -49.7% 17% 17% -58.8%
≤90d 18 -44.4% -49.7% 17% 17% -58.8%
all 45 -63.6% -67.0% 9% 9% -53.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.0% 9% -53.2%
10% -70.2% 9% -57.7%
15% -73.1% 9% -61.8%
20% -75.7% 7% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$8 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage159d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$19 +365%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +276%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$18 -88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 13 $13 −$12 -95%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 30 $20 −$8 -41%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 30 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Jan 23 $31 −$27 -88%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 23 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the US strike Nigeria next? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 22 $20 −$16 -82%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the Jan 22 $6 −$3 -56%
Will the US strike another country first? Jan 22 $3 $0 -3%
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Jan 22 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $20 −$15 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $3 −$3 -99%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round Jan 19 $19 −$19 -99%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $2 −$1 -82%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 18 $86 +$54 +62%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 4th place in the 1st round of the 2026 Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 16, 2026? Jan 18 $1 $0 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $36 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $39 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 6d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 129d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 144d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 144d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 144d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY Yes 4¢ $5 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.03 · official $68.03 (match) · 90 history records