Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x38ce…5431 sports 1182 markets active 3h ago coverage 342d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,373 (+2%) realized +$5,466 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%810W / 367L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$966est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 342d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3,980
other 7% −$1,339
politics 0% +$64
economics 0% −$69
crypto 0% −$28
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$100
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 65% 50% -10.5%
≤30d 96 +7.4% -2.8% 74% 58% +3.4%
≤90d 361 -2.3% -11.6% 68% 55% -9.6%
all 1177 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 52% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 52% -8.6%
10% -19.4% 38% -17.3%
15% -27.2% 26% -25.3%
20% -34.3% 16% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$154 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

342d coverage
Net worth$907
Realized+$5,466
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses810 / 367
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$966
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1177 / 1182
History coverage342d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $1,000 $907 −$93 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 227 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $200 +$18 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,312 −$300 -23%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,017 −$12 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $881 −$442 -50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $704 +$141 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $203 −$166 -82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $503 −$400 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$105 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $109 +$41 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $78 −$77 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $53 −$51 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1,521 +$733 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$43 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $203 +$141 +70%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $305 +$277 +91%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $201 +$25 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $201 +$39 +19%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1,208 +$39 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$62 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $153 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 14h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 16h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 94¢ $100 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 81¢ $101 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $100 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 78¢ $201 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 29h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $979 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $544 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 65¢ $1,010 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 95¢ $100 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $201 32h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 67¢ $101 35h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $805 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $101 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 84¢ $100 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 80¢ $715 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $101 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $101 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 92¢ $275 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 18¢ $141 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $704 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $37 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $505 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.40 · official $1,057.40 · 2806 history records