Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38cc…8210
other · 5 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$4 +39%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 1 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$1
sports 50% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 37m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.1% +9.6% 75% 75% +26.5%
≤30d 4 +21.1% +9.6% 75% 75% +26.5%
≤90d 4 +21.1% +9.6% 75% 75% +26.5%
all 4 +21.1% +9.6% 75% 75% +26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 75% +26.5%
10% -0.9% 75% +14.4%
15% -10.5% 75% +3.3%
20% -19.3% 25% -6.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 9 history records