Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
38 0x38cc…603f sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$90 (+32%) realized +$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$119
other 39% −$23
world 5% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.0% +18.5% 53% 53% +35.1%
≤30d 15 +31.0% +18.5% 53% 53% +35.1%
≤90d 15 +31.0% +18.5% 53% 53% +35.1%
all 15 +31.0% +18.5% 53% 53% +35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.5% 53% +35.1%
10% +7.1% 53% +22.1%
15% -3.2% 53% +10.3%
20% -12.7% 53% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +56% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$12 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 49¢ 44¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +138%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$4 -51%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $16 −$12 -73%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$35 +158%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 +$11 +86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$25 +135%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $30 34m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 92¢ $28 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $27 4h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $20 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $4 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 33¢ $8 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 10¢ $4 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $16 8h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $26 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $58 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $22 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $12 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 87¢ $12 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $13 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $29 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $9 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 0¢ $0 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 84¢ $5 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $23 30h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $18 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.24 · official $27.24 (match) · 34 history records