Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c9…d481 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$3
other 21% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 3% −$9
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 19 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -11.1%
10% -21.6% 0% -19.6%
15% -29.2% 0% -27.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage473d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $43 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -16%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $1 $0 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $2 $0 -25%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 09 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $38 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $44 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $35 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $9 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $2 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $42 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $49 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $49 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.20 · official $47.20 (match) · 120 history records