Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c7…94eb other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-2%) realized −$113 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%30W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$9
politics 23% +$2
economics 5% +$1
crypto 4% −$120
world 4% +$2
culture 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
sports 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 -8.1% -16.8% 92% 0% -21.6%
all 37 -5.0% -14.1% 81% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -12.5%
10% -22.3% 0% -20.9%
15% -29.8% 0% -28.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$33 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,311
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses30 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage145d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $513 $514 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $423 $423 +$0 (+0%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $371 $369 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 16 $600 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 05 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on April 4? Apr 05 $5 $0 +0%
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Creighton Bluejays Apr 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 2? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or below on April 2? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 2? Apr 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 23? Mar 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 2 Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 23 $414 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? Jan 23 $748 $0 +0%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an Jan 23 $160 +$5 +3%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 23 $344 $0 -0%
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31? Jan 23 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 23 $252 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 23 $176 +$2 +1%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 23 $159 +$5 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 23 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 2m
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 36m
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $171 1h
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 2 BUY No 100¢ $145 1h
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 99¢ $110 18h
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $119 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 32h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 SELL No 99¢ $601 32h
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $514 41h
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 2 BUY No 100¢ $278 41h
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 BUY No 99¢ $600 41h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 10d
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 29d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 29d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 70d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 70d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $4 72d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 73d
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Creighton Bluejays BUY Creighton Bluejays 52¢ $9 73d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 76d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or below on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $5 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $6 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,311.19 · official $1,311.19 (match) · 116 history records