Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x38c6…97ae sports 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$626 (+11%) realized +$673 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%153W / 246L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$130
14 days+$130
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$646
other 5% −$16
finance 3% +$3
crypto 2% −$9
economics 1% −$51
weather 0% −$19
world 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +51.5% +37.1% 42% 42% +16.8%
≤30d 105 +11.9% +1.3% 37% 37% -1.7%
≤90d 340 +0.8% -8.8% 34% 34% -8.5%
all 399 +7.6% -2.6% 38% 38% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 38% -0.2%
10% -12.0% 37% -9.8%
15% -20.5% 36% -18.5%
20% -28.3% 33% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$673
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses153 / 246
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions10
Markets (closed)399 / 409
History coverage135d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $51 $26 −$25 (-49%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 58¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Top Esports Challenger 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Saigon Warriors 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$28 +272%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$19 +186%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$66 +1290%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$19 -47%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $15 +$27 +175%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$51 +335%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$21 +414%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $12 $0 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 +$3 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$17 +165%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 +$29 +216%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $25 $0 -1%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $20 +$11 +55%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 28 $20 +$21 +104%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $20 +$47 +232%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 27 $10 +$63 +611%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 3¢ $5 47m
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 8¢ $5 51m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 6¢ $5 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $38 5h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 90¢ $29 5h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $5 6h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $5 6h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $10 7h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 15¢ $5 18h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $5 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $5 23h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 56¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 36¢ $10 24h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 43¢ $3 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 40¢ $5 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 62¢ $20 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $5 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $5 25h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 2¢ $10 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $5 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 33h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 40h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $5 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $5 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 5¢ $2 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 7¢ $5 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 25¢ $5 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 46¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.99 · official $61.99 (match) · 1174 history records